New England Patriots OVER 11.5 (+100) – There isn’t a lot of upside to taking the Patriots to win at least 12 games, but they have won at least 12 games in eight straight seasons. Their division still includes the Dolphins, Jets and Bills, which should get them halfway there.
Detroit Lions OVER 7.5 (-115) – New coach Matt Patricia has a lot of talent to work with and the Lions have won at least nine games in three of the past four seasons.
Arizona Cardinals OVER 5.5 (-180) – Given the price, the expectations have obviously shifted, but a healthy David Johnson and the quarterback tandem of Sam Bradford and Josh Rosen should put the Cardinals in range of a .500 season.
Washington OVER 6.5 (-175) – There is admittedly some risk with a team that has Alex Smith and Adrian Peterson featured in prominent roles, but they are good enough to get to eight wins, as the price here suggests.
Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 10.5 (+120) – Despite the Le’Veon Bell contract drama, the Steelers are still the powerhouse team in the AFC North and their receiving corps is getting better. Like the Patriots, there still isn’t a lot of upside to taking the Steelers to win at least 11 games, but they have done it in three of the past four seasons.
Denver Broncos UNDER 7.5 (-105) – This is kind of a tough one, because I have some cautious optimism about the Broncos, but not enough to think that they will improve by three wins over last season. It could happen, if Case Keenum is the answer at quarterback and rookie Royce Freeman runs the rock effectively, but that’s still asking for substantial improvement.
Baltimore Ravens UNDER 8.5 (-130) – The Ravens do have a favourable schedule, at least early in the season, but unless rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson gives them a jolt by taking the starting job from Joe Flacco, it’s easy enough to see the Ravens not finishing with a winning record.
Miami Dolphins UNDER 6.5 (+110) – Although the Dolphins won 10 games in 2016, Ryan Tannehill’s last healthy season, they don’t look like a team headed for a winning record this year. Given relatively mediocre talent, it could get ugly, so a five or six-win season isn’t that hard to envision.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 6.5 (-140) – In five of the past six seasons, the Bucs have won six games or fewer, and they open the year with starting quarterback Jameis Winston suspended for the first three games.
New York Giants UNDER 6.5 (+165) – It’s certainly possible that highly-touted rookie running back Saquon Barkley lifts the Giants into respectability after a three-win season in 2017, especially if the G-Men also have a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. at their disposal, but a four-win improvement is a big ask too, especially when the price favours taking the under.
Oakland Raiders UNDER 7.5 (-140) – The Raiders have had one winning season in the past six, and while there are already questions about whether head coach Jon Gruden is suited to win in the modern NFL, it’s also a team that just traded away their best defensive player, defensive end Khalil Mack, to Chicago.
Indianapolis Colts UNDER 6.5 (+165) – Getting quarterback Andrew Luck back in the lineup is obviously huge – they had five straight seasons with at least eight wins before Luck missed the 2017 season – there are still significant holes in the supporting cast so a losing record seems possible and if Luck gets hurt again, well things could go south in a hurry.
Buffalo Bills UNDER 6.5 (-280) – This one is included only for the reference of the dramatic and prohibitive price in order to take the Bills on the under. A 9-7 playoff team a year ago, they are going to open the season with Nathan Peterman at quarterback, and there isn’t enough talent on the roster to think that they will find their way close to a winning record. The wildcard, perhaps, could be if strong-armed rookie quarterback Josh Allen is somehow ready to not only play, but have some measure of success in his first season.